Politico published on 22 April 2024 an article titled "US vs. Russia: Why the Biden Strategy in Africa May Be Failing" by Erin Banco and Lara Seligman.
The article discusses the recent US policy setbacks in Africa's Sahel region, especially in Niger and most recently in Chad. It notes correctly that Russia has taken advantage of diminished Western influence in the region and suggests it may be time for a US policy change.
Comment: It is important not to lose sight of the fact that Africa constitutes 54 countries with just over a half dozen constituting the Sahel region. There is a long history in the Sahel region of the ebb and flow of military takeovers, elected governments, and then repeat. The US not only prefers elected governments but faces legal restrictions when the military illegally replaces one. Many other African governments are equally concerned about these illegal changes of power.
While a government like Russia's can take advantage of these developments, the US can only seek to minimize the damage to the relationship, which it has been trying to do in Niger without much success so far. It is appropriate to maintain a relationship with these military regimes, however limited it may be. But it is more important to play the long game. Eventually, these regimes will be replaced, possibly by another military coup or even an election demanded by the people.
In the meantime, Russia may have saddled itself with the responsibility of protecting regimes that, over time, become increasingly less popular and require more and more resources. There is also the larger threat to these Sahelian governments from ISIS-affiliated jihadi organizations that are trying to eliminate them. Is Russia prepared to prevent this from happening across the Sahel? Highly doubtful.
